My response is always the same - you need a three point plan in order to mitigate against this potential issue:
- Acknowledge that analysis is indeed backward looking but it's only one piece of the insight jigsaw and nobody has an Oracle with which to look into the future
- Ask yourself some tough structured questions about how and why the future might be different from the past. Construct some kind of process around this questioning (Delphi workshops work well here)
- Invest some effort in activities designed to answer new questions - if you haven't got a clue whether sponsorship and events are a great way to communicate with your core customers, try it on a small scale
Not doing the above and relying blindly on historical analysis will leave you looking a bit like this guy when things to shift.